A Penn State fan gets tossed in the air in celebration during the Buckeyes 24-21 loss on Oct. 22. Credit: Alexa Mavrogianis | Photo Editor
For the second year in a row, Penn State will upset Ohio State.
It’s almost crazy to consider this an upset, but Vegas odds favor the No. 6 Buckeyes by seven points against the second-ranked Nittany Lions, despite Ohio State having lost to the one quality opponent it has played all season — Oklahoma in Week 2.
The Nittany Lions will travel to Columbus with some momentum, coming off arguably their most impressive win all season, trouncing then-No. 19 Michigan 42-13 and outgaining them 506 to 209 in total yards.
That blowout style of victory has become almost expected for Penn State this season. The reigning Big Ten champions have outscored opponents 280-67 on the year and have 3,243 yards to opponents’ 1,980. Only one game all season — a road matchup against Iowa Week 4 — was even within one touchdown.
Ohio State will no doubt provide Penn State with its toughest matchup to date. The Buckeyes too are riding a hot hand and have had an extra week to prepare with a bye week prior to this game. Prior to their bye, they had scored at least 54 points in four straight games and held opponents to only 49 points in that span.
So this will be a battle of two of college football’s best teams. But why will Penn State win?
The Nittany Lions will leave Columbus as the No. 2 team and the hands-down favorite to win the Big Ten because of their stout defense, which will limit the Buckeyes to less than 30 points for only the second time this season. Penn State’s offense is loaded with weapons that Ohio State will have difficulty covering for four quarters.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions have shown the nation’s seventh-best passing defense and 17th-best rushing defense. Ohio State has faced just one other defense ranked in the top 50 in terms of average passing yards allowed per game . . . and it was Army, a non-Power 5 team the Buckeyes were expected to roll during Week 3. The Buckeyes have yet to face a team in the top 50 for rush defense.
The Buckeyes have found plenty of success offensively in nearly all facets of the game, but all have come in games where the talent gap was so substantial that it was no surprise when Ohio State blew out the opponent.
The best defense and only real test the Buckeyes have faced all year was against Oklahoma, when the Buckeyes scored only 16 points.
On the other side of the ball, the Nittany Lions have talent at several positions Ohio State has yet to see. Heisman Trophy front-runner Saquon Barkley at running back, Mike Gesicki at tight end, Trace McSorley at quarterback and a talented group of receivers, which includes DaeSean Hamilton and Juwan Johnson who both have over 300 receiving yards this season, all make up the biggest test Ohio State’s defense will face this season.
And the Scarlet and Gray have not looked good against even some of the easier opponents on its schedule. The cornerbacks, outside of Denzel Ward, have been picked apart on multiple occasions and have yet to live up to the preseason hype placed on them by the coaching staff. Unlike against a team like Indiana when they can afford to allow 420 passing yards with the Ohio State offense playing well, the cornerbacks will have to put forth a shutdown effort to limit the production of the Penn State receivers. One mistake in this game could be the difference between a win and a loss.
Speaking of mistakes, the final reason Penn State will win comes on special teams. The Nittany Lions will have Barkley waiting near the goal line to receive every kickoff. Ohio State has struggled mightily on kickoffs this season, as head coach Urban Meyer has voiced his concerns on the matter each week. If any kick in the game sails down the middle of the field, Barkley could easily catch the Ohio State kickoff unit out of coverage and burn them for a score. Expect that to happen at least once.
The talent disparity between the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes leans in Penn State’s favor, and the only reason this game will be close is because it is in Columbus. Ohio State could prove a lot of people, including this writer, wrong and put up a dominant effort and keep its season alive. But in the end, Penn State will come away with the 27-24 win over Ohio State, effectively ending the Buckeyes’ 2017 championship aspirations.
