Military vehicles drive out of the military training area near Vilseck, Germany. One thousand American soldiers are to be transferred from the Vilseck site to Romania, according to the U.S. Department of Defense, to assist in Russia-Ukraine conflict. Credit: Armin Weigel/dpa/ZUMA Press via TNS
Ohio State experts say war between the U.S. and Russia is unlikely despite increasing tension between the two countries.
Donald Sylvan, emeritus professor of political science at Ohio State, said the tension results from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to restore Russia’s control over Ukraine, threatening an invasion. Peter Mansoor, General Raymond and Mason Jr. chair of military history at Ohio State, said U.S. sanctions against Russia may not be enough to deter an invasion.
Russian troops have built up at the border of Ukraine threatening a possible invasion, but the U.S. has given no indication of getting involved militarily. Rather, the U.S. government is prepared to enforce economic sanctions to discourage an invasion, senior White House officials said in a Jan. 25 teleconference.
Sylvan said Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to return to the Soviet Union era, when it was a territory, leading to a threat of invasion. He said Putin is unhappy with Ukraine potentially joining NATO.
“What he sees when he looks at Ukraine from his perspective, had always been part of the heart of Russia,” Sylvan said.
Sylvan said potential sanctions by the U.S. could be detrimental to Russia’s economy.
“The strategy of economic sanctions, which is what they call it, has the possibility of hitting Russia where it hurts,” Sylvan said.
Sylvan said the potential invasion of Ukraine could also influence the invasion of other NATO-affiliated countries close to Ukraine.
“If you don’t stop a country from doing that, they set a precedent,” Sylvan said. “That’s the reason the United States and NATO together have to act and have to stop it from happening.”
Sylvan said if Russia were to invade Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO would most likely guard other countries within NATO, such as Bulgaria and Romania.
If the conflict did turn into a war, Sylvan said Ukraine would likely lose because Russia’s military is much larger than Ukraine’s.
Mansoor said Russia has a large military, which has strengthened under Putin’s rule, and is a threat to the U.S. and its allies.
“Russia is a strategic adversary to the United States,” Mansoor said. “It has one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world and, in that sense, it can certainly threaten the United States.”
Mansoor said current tensions could turn violent, but President Joe Biden has taken the U.S. entering into war off the table. However, Mansoor said sanctions alone would not stop Russia from invading Ukraine.
“Sanctions rarely cause a nation to back down from foreign adventure, so this situation could very likely result in a war between Russia and Ukraine,” Mansoor said.
