Plant-based meat alternatives such as vegan patties are rising in popularity, but research suggests they are not encroaching on the market dominance of animal based meats. Credit: Courtesy of Emily Caldwell and Rocky89/Getty Images
The meat industry has no beef with plant-based meat alternatives, according to new research by agricultural economists, including a professor at Ohio State.
The study, published in the journal Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, indicates that while demand for plant-based meat alternatives has increased in recent years, it has not reduced consumer spending on animal meat products, such as beef and pork.
Wuyang Hu, a professor in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics at Ohio State and co-author of the study, said they found that rather than substituting meat products, consumers often buy plant-based meat alternatives in addition to their existing meat purchases.
“Plant-based meat alternatives are actually kind of a supplement to beef and pork,” Hu said. “People say, ‘I’ve heard that plant-based meat alternatives are actually a substitute for beef, I want to compare them side by side. Why don’t I pick up both?’ ”
Using data from Nielsen — an information, data and market measurement firm — collected from 40 U.S. states between January 2017 and July 2020, the study found that the market share of plant-based meat alternatives increased from 0.1 percent to 0.4 percent.
Two brands — Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat — account for 75 percent of the plant-based meat market, earning more than $10 billion in global sales in 2018. These sales are predicted to triple by 2026.
Animal-based meats still dominate the market, with beef accounting for approximately 46 percent of fresh meat sales, followed by chicken at 23 percent and pork and fish at 12 percent each, according to the study.
The study showed that most of plant-based meat’s market growth occurred during the early months of the pandemic. Hu said the price increase of animal meat, due to supply chain issues during the pandemic, may have contributed to consumers supplementing their purchases with plant-based alternatives.
Shuoli Zhao, assistant professor of agricultural economics at the University of Kentucky and co-author of the study, said plant-based meat did not suffer the same supply chain issues as animal meat products because of the way it is manufactured.
“Plant-based meat processing and technology, or its supply chain, involves less of labor,” Zhao said. “The whole meat supply chain was totally interrupted, but plant-based meat has been pretty consistent and pretty stable.”
In addition to stable prices, Zhao said factors like the novelty of the product and a longer shelf life than animal meat were other potential reasons for the uptick in plant-based meat purchases during this period.
However, Hu said previous studies on plant-based meat adoption indicate that many new buyers may only be one-time consumers.
“Quickly, the people who have bought it will be out of the market for plant-based meat alternatives,” Hu said. “So right now it’s still unclear to us who are the buyers, who are the ones supporting the market share of plant-based meat alternatives.”
Zhao said the same research team is currently working on another study that uses consumer data to answer these questions. For the time being, Zhao said the key takeaway for plant-based meat companies is that, in order to attract long-term adopters, further work is needed to refine their products.
Hu said one of the biggest obstacles for plant-based meat is variety. He said most of the market’s current plant-based meat alternatives come in the form of a burger patty, which many consumers do not recognize as an alternative to traditional cuts of animal meat.
Despite the industry’s current limitations, Zhao said he is optimistic about the future of plant-based meat alternatives.
“More and more people actually prefer the benefits of the plant-based meat, including the contribution to the environment as well as the contribution to animal welfare,” Zhao said.
