A summer to remember: Political experts unpack the Trump assassination attempt and its effects on young voters

At a July 13 rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, multiple gun shots were fired at former President Donald Trump as he stood on stage, wounding his right ear, killing one spectator and injuring two others. Credit: Courtesy of TNS [Original caption: President Trump ordered the airstrike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani on Jan. 3.]

Summer 2024 may very well go down in history.

Though political tensions have been rising throughout the season, three historic events — the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris being the first woman-of-color U.S. presidential nominee — occurred in the span of nearly one month, potentially sending ripples throughout American politics for decades to come. 

Now, Ohio State professors analyze each of these political happenings, offering their perspectives on how such consequential events may resonate with college-aged voters, affect their voting habits and even leave a lasting mark on their political outlooks.

At a July 13 rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, multiple gun shots were fired at Trump as he stood on stage, wounding his right ear, killing one spectator and injuring two others.

David Steigerwald, an Ohio State professor in the Department of History, said there have been four sitting United States presidents assassinated throughout history — Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy. He added there have been numerous failed attempts on the lives of sitting U.S. presidents, including Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan.

As to how this historical precedent may affect the public’s interpretation of the assassination attempt on Trump, Steigerwald said it should remind people that what happened July 13 isn’t completely unusual, but rather “an unfortunate part of American political history.”

Wendy Smooth — an Ohio State professor in the Department of Political Science, Department of Women’s, Gender and Sexuality Studies and the John Glenn School of Public Affairs — said regardless of one’s political engagement level or preferences, this violent event ought to make the American public reevaluate its nationwide politics.

“Whether people are policy and political wonks like myself, or if they are kind of tangentially taking in the news, for all of us, it caused us to pause and take in what moment we have collectively created — that our politics are so polarized that we could see this attempted assassination on a presidential candidate,” Smooth said.

Thomas Nelson, an Ohio State professor in the Department of Political Science with research expertise in political psychology and American politics, agreed and added that many current polls indicate people think political vitriol and hatred has reached an “unacceptable” high within the U.S. For those individuals, he said compassion toward Trump may be limited.

“For those people, ‘Yeah, OK, Trump is a victim of this, but he’s also a perpetrator of this,’ right? I mean, he as much as anybody attacks his enemies with pretty vicious language,” Nelson said. “I don’t think he gets, for that reason, a lot of people’s sympathy, for somebody who just nearly got killed.”

Nelson, Steigerwald and Herb Asher, a professor emeritus in the Department of Political Science with expertise in mass political behavior, all agreed that although there may be a surge in support from Trump’s existing conservative base, individuals who weren’t previously supportive of the former president likely won’t be as affected by this event.

Despite historical precedent regarding presidential assassinations and attempts, Asher said this attempt on Trump is distinct due to its close proximity to the election. For this reason, Asher said the former president could have used what happened to his advantage by claiming a new outlook on public life and politics; instead, Asher said, Trump remained “just as much in an attack mode” as before the attempt.

“He could have gone on television and said, ‘I’ve learned something today. I’ve learned something, I’ve survived, I give thanks to God that I survived. I’ve learned something, we need to tone it down, we need to have respect for each other,’” Asher said. “And that lasted for about a day.”

When it comes to college-aged individuals, Asher said despite never before having witnessed a presidential assassination attempt in their lifetimes, the extent of violence younger generations have witnessed via school shootings, civil disruption and graphic video games is likely to mean young voters won’t be politically swayed much by what happened July 13.

“It’s not as if violence is something new to [that] generation,” Asher said. “[They’ve] seen it in some ways more graphically, and especially in the context of schools and university settings, but also just the random violence that occurs on a city street. And so, I don’t think that makes them more sympathetic to Donald Trump.”