Led by head coach Ryan Day, the No. 2 Buckeyes gather to enter the Ohio Stadium ahead of their last regular season game against Michigan. The Wolverines took home a 13-10 win over the Buckeyes. Credit: Carly Damon | Asst. Photo Editor
Despite their crushing loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes will have a spot in the College Football Playoffs.
If the season were to end today, before conference championship games are played this weekend, Ohio State would be the No. 8 seed in the playoffs and host Tennessee for a first-round matchup. Then, the winning team would go on to face Oregon in the quarterfinals.
This outcome certainly wouldn’t be ideal for the Buckeyes, who previously fell to Oregon 32-31 Oct. 12. But there are still crucial games to be played, the outcomes of which might help Ohio State improve in the rankings and secure more favorable playoff confrontations.
Buckeye fans must keep an eye on two Saturday games — Oregon versus Penn State and Texas versus Georgia. Given the results, Ohio State could move up to the No. 6 seed and face the No. 11-seeded team at home; if the Buckeyes earn a victory, they would go on to play the third-highest-ranked conference championship squad in the quarterfinals.
Here’s a more detailed breakdown.
With the new, 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions earn a first-round bye and advance straight to the quarterfinals.
The Big Ten Championship — featuring Oregon against Penn State — will likely decide the No. 1 seed. In addition, the No. 2 seed is expected to be determined by the winner of the SEC Championship between Texas and Georgia.
That would leave the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds to be the Big 12 champion (Iowa State or Arizona), the ACC champion (Southern Methodist University or Clemson) and/or the Mountain West champion (Boise State or UNLV). The lowest-ranking champion would be named the No. 12 seed, due to the automatic bid as the Group of Five conferences’ champion.
That said, here are two end results Ohio State needs to gain a more favorable path en route to a national championship.
Oregon defeats Penn State, preferably in a blowout
The first step in this process is for the Ducks to beat the Nittany Lions.
With a Penn State loss, especially a blowout, the selection committee would seemingly have no choice but to seed the Buckeyes ahead of the Nittany Lions for several reasons.
First, Ohio State simply has the advantage over Penn State, as the Buckeyes went into Happy Valley and beat the Nittany Lions 20-13 Nov. 2.
Looking at resumes, Ohio State also has two top-five wins this season, compared to Penn State’s zero.
So, if Oregon — which is currently favored to win by 3.5, according to most major sportsbooks — wins, the Buckeyes would likely move ahead of the Nittany Lions.
Texas beats Georgia
Despite having a down season, the Georgia Bulldogs have still made it to the SEC Championship.
Georgia now prepares to play Texas, an opponent it has already beaten this season. But achieving a repeat victory won’t be easy.
Currently, the Longhorns are favored to win the contest by 2.5 points, according to most major sportsbooks.
So, why should Ohio State fans want former Buckeye and current Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers to dominate the Bulldogs?
Georgia is already a two-loss team, and a third loss would probably force the committee to rank the Buckeyes — which have two losses — ahead of the Bulldogs.
Yes, Ohio State was upset at home by unranked Michigan in a terrible, embarrassing loss. But it also fell to No. 1 Oregon on the road by one point — or rather, one second. This leaves the Buckeyes with two losses by a combined four points.
A hypothetical, three-loss Georgia team — that also needed eight overtime periods to beat Georgia Tech, fell to No. 13 Ole Miss and lost to No. 11 Alabama — would feasibly fall behind the Buckeyes in the rankings.
With a Longhorns win in the conference championship, Ohio State would likely be placed ahead of the Bulldogs and earn the coveted No. 6 seed.
Then, the Buckeyes would host the No. 11 seed in the first round, hopefully avoiding the Big Ten and SEC champions in the second.
In short, Ohio State fans must root for the favorites in the Big Ten and SEC championships — Oregon and Texas — for the easiest path toward a national championship.
