Mike Faist, left, and Zendaya in “Challengers.” Credit: Niko Tavernise via TNS
There’s nothing quite like the drama of the Oscars, from the Will Smith slap of 2022 to the accidental announcement of “La La Land” as 2017’s Best Picture.
This year’s rendition promises to be no different, with some heated ethical debates around the use of artificial intelligence in “The Brutalist” to the universally hated “Emilia Pérez” leading all movies with 13 nominations.
Serving as The Lantern’s go-to film critic, I’ve had the opportunity to watch nearly every movie nominated for the major categories at this year’s Oscars. And though I’ll be predicting the winner in each category based on the rumors and gossip which are in no small shortage, I’ll also be making my personal picks for who I think should win in each category; because if there’s one thing that’s universally known about the Oscars, it’s that they rarely end up making the right choice.
Note: Personal picks in each category are made regardless of if the film was nominated for its respective category.
Best Picture nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance” and “Wicked”
Predicted Best Picture: “The Brutalist”
Personal pick: “Conclave”
As of now, there are only three movies that have a reasonable chance of winning Best Picture: “The Brutalist,” “Conclave” and “Emilia Pérez,” likely in that order.
Though “Emilia Pérez” leads the awards in nominations, the widespread backlash it received after over-performing at the Golden Globes has cast a shadow on its Best Picture chances.
And it’s not undeserved. “Emilia Pérez” is “Oscar bait” of the highest order; a complete travesty of a film that exploits every marginalized community that it misrepresents in its completely self-indulgent runtime, while also failing to at least function as a well-done musical.
“The Brutalist” is likely to take home the award, and it would be a good pivot for The Academy from “Emilia Pérez” to still recognize a movie that deals with some contemporary issues — in this case, immigration. However, it recently came under fire for its use of generative AI, and though it still exists as a strong film, awarding Best Picture to a movie that has committed such an ethical dilemma Best Picture may set a bad precedent.
That leaves “Conclave,” which is probably the tightest, most refined movie of the year. It features some standout performances, a great score, topical issues, stunning cinematography and an overall well-paced, enjoyable viewing experience.
Best Director nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Emilia Pérez” and “The Substance”
Predicted Best Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Personal pick: Luca Guadagnino, “Challengers”
Best Picture and Best Director often coincide, so it would make sense for Corbet to win the accolade. However, for the issues mentioned previously surrounding AI, Corbet may not be the best pick.
Instead, my choice for Best Director comes out of left field: Guadagnino for the tennis thriller “Challengers.” The film is already causing some outcry for its snub in the Best Original Score category, and I also believe the directing is significantly underappreciated. The movie easily could’ve gone off the rails without Guadagnino’s precise vision.
“Challengers” was a perfect blend of humor, romance and tension that was flawlessly paced and featured some innovative cinematography, much of which Guadagnino deserves credit for.
Best Actor in a Leading Role nominees: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist;” Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown;” Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing;” Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” and Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Predicted Best Actor in a Leading Role: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Personal pick: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Once again, “The Brutalist” leads.
Chalamet’s transformation into Bob Dylan would also make a lot of sense as the winner, but Stan delivered a more nuanced transformation into his role as Donald Trump in “The Apprentice.” He deserves the award for a role that will forever be tied to the year 2024.
Best Actress in a Leading Role nominees: Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked;” Karla Sofía Gascón “Emilia Pérez;”, Mikey Madison “Anora;”, Demi Moore “The Substance;”, Fernanda Torres “I’m Still Here”
Predicted Best Actress in a Leading Role: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Personal Pick: Saoirse Ronan, “The Outrun”
Moore is more than a deserving winner for Best Actress, having already taken home a Golden Globe for her role in “The Substance.”
Personally, I strongly believe Ronan cemented herself as one of the very best working actresses in the industry for her role as Rona in the semi-autobiographical drug addiction film “The Outrun;” thus, she is my pick for best performance by an actress this year.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role nominees: Yura Borisov “Anora;”, Kieran Culkin “A Real Pain;”, Edward Norton “A Complete Unknown;”, Guy Pearce “The Brutalist;”, Jeremy Strong “The Apprentice”
Predicted winner: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Personal pick: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
I agree with the overwhelming favorite to take home Best Supporting Actor. Culkin brought a bittersweet charisma to “A Real Pain,” one of the best films of the year that would have not been half as good without him.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role nominees: Monica Barbaro “A Complete Unknown;”, Ariana Grande-Butera “Wicked;”, Felicity Jones “The Brutalist;”, Isabella Rossellini “Conclave;”, Zoe Saldana “Emilia Pérez”
Predicted winner: Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Pérez”
Personal pick: Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
For once, Saldana’s face isn’t painted blue or green like in “Avatar” or “Guardians of the Galaxy.” However, she does have a bit of egg on her face for her role in “Emilia Perez,” a movie that will, without a doubt, not stand the test of time.
Rossellini’s appearances in “Conclave” were limited, but she dominated every scene she appeared in — especially when she delivered the curtsy to end all curtsies.
Animated Feature Film nominees: “Flow,” “Inside Out 2,” “Memoir of a Snail,” “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” and “The Wild Robot”
Predicted winner: “The Wild Robot”
Personal pick: “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
This category feels much more of a matter of personal preference, as all of the nominees are pretty universally beloved. For me, “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” represented a great comeback for the studio behind the legendary British stop-motion company Aardman Animations and deserves recognition.
Visual Effects nominees: “Alien: Romulus,” “Better Man,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” and “Wicked”
Predicted winner: “Dune: Part Two”
Personal pick: “Dune: Part Two”
Many feel as though “Dune: Part Two” is not getting the recognition it deserves, perhaps due to its early release in March. However, it will likely and deservedly win Visual Effects, unless “Wicked” spoils the party.
Cinematography nominees: “The Brutalist,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Maria” and “Nosferatu”
Predicted winner: “The Brutalist”
Personal Pick: “Dune: Part Two”
The cinematography of “The Brutalist,” untainted by AI, was admittedly breathtaking.
However, it does seem like “Dune: Part Two” is once again suffering in this category from being forgotten under more recent releases. Greg Freiser, the film’s cinematographer, is up there with Roger Deakins — known for working on films including “No Country for Old Men,” “1917” and “Blade Runner: 2049” — for best cinematographers working today, if not of all time.
Adapted Screenplay nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing”
Predicted winner: “Conclave”
Personal pick: “Conclave”
The script for “Conclave” uses just enough dialogue to spark debate, while also knowing when to step back and let the visual medium shine. It’s a worthy winner.
Original Screenplay nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Real Pain,” “September 5” and “The Substance”
Predicted winner: “Anora”
Personal pick: “A Real Pain”
“Anora” may take home this award as a bit of a consolation for writer/director Sean Baker, but Jesse Eisenberg’s debut screenplay marvelously mixes humor and tragedy in a snappy, character-driven story, making “A Real Pain” a strong contender.
Original Score nominees: “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Wicked” and “The Wild Robot”
Predicted winner: “The Brutalist”
Personal pick: “Challengers”
“Challengers” being snubbed for Original Score was probably the biggest shock of all the categories.
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross of the rock band Nine Inch Nails composed a score so full of life and energy that it’s become a fan favorite choice to listen to while studying in hopes of increasing efficiency.
Original Song nominees: “El Mal,” (Emilia Pérez) “The Journey,” ( The Six Triple Eight) “Like A Bird,” (Sing Sing)“Mi Camino” (Emilia Pérez) and “Never Too Late” (Elton John:Never Too Late)
Predicted winner: “El Mal” (Emilia Pérez)
Personal pick: “Like a Bird” (Sing Sing)
“Emilia Pérez” gets two nominations in this category, and deserves neither. “Sing Sing” was one of the most underrated movies of the year and deserves to take home at least one Oscar.
Film Editing nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked”
Predicted winner: “Conclave”
Personal pick: “Challengers”
Both “Conclave” and “Challengers” have the same strengths of great pace and drama in their editing, but the back-and-forth editing during the tennis match sequences in “Challengers” is just a little more impressive.
Sound nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Wicked” and “The Wild Robot”
Predicted winner: “Wicked”
Personal pick: “Dune: Part Two”
Though the vocal performances of “Wicked” were impressive, there still remains debate amongst fans of the franchise on which various cast performed the songs the best, be it on Broadway or on screen.
Meanwhile, “Dune: Part Two’s” sound improved on its predecessor’s in every way, from the tiny scampering of desert mice across sand to the guttural roars of the sand worms.
Makeup and Hairstyling nominees: “A Different Man,” “Emilia Pèrez,” “Nosferatu,” “The Substance” and “Wicked”
Predicted winner: “The Substance”
Personal pick: “The Substance”
It’s hard to explain why “The Substance” should win Makeup and Hairstyling unless you’ve seen the movie. If you haven’t, do yourself a favor and watch it. It’ll become pretty clear pretty quickly why it deserves this Oscar.
Costume Design nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Gladiator II,” “Nosferatu” and “Wicked”
Predicted winner: “Wicked”
Personal pick: “Dune: Part Two”
All of these nominees are strong contenders, but Florence Pugh’s silver sheet-metal dress alone is enough to win “Dune: Part Two” the Costume Design category, not to mention the Fremen suits or any of the other fantastic outfits the various characters wear in this space opera.
Note: International Feature Film, Documentary Short Film, Documentary Feature Film, Live Action Short Film and Animated Short Film were omitted from this list due to a majority of their nominees not being easily accessible to view.
