Ohio Senate race raises stakes for Ohio's and the country’s future

(left) [Original Caption] U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown speaks to students during NASA Glenn’s STEM Aviation Day. Credit: Joshua Gunter via TNS (right) [Original Caption] Bernie Moreno, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, addresses members of the Medina County Friends and Neighbors during a meeting celebrating 15 years of building a coalition of conservative grassroots support in Medina County. Credit: John Kuntz via TNS

Whether students are streaming their favorite TV show or watching a YouTube video, they will likely encounter an Ohio Senate campaign advertisement filled with jabs from both candidates complete with montages of ominous images questioning these politicians’ “real” agendas. 

The 2024 United States Senate elections are fast approaching Tuesday, and Bernie Moreno and Sen. Sherrod Brown — Ohio’s dueling candidates — won’t let voters forget it.

The legislative branch of the U.S. federal government consists of the Senate and the House of Representatives, which make up Congress — the only branch of government with the vested power to create or change laws. The Senate itself is composed of 100 senators, with two representing each state.

Senators are elected for six-year terms, and their terms are staggered, according to The White House website. This means one-third of the Senate is up for reelection every two years. 

The most recent person elected to represent Ohio in the U.S. Senate was current vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance (OH-R) in November 2022. Vance beat out then-Democratic candidate Tim Ryan with 53.28% of the vote, according to NPR. 

Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH-D)

Brown — a Democrat from Mansfield, Ohio — has held his U.S. Senate seat since 2007, representing the state as it has transitioned from a swing state to a red state over the past decade. 

According to Brown’s website, the senator believes in securing the U.S. border, equal rights for LGBTQ+ people and people of color, abortion access and affordable healthcare.

Nathaniel Swigger, a professor of political science at Ohio State with a specialization in political psychology and public opinion, said this election is especially crucial because Brown is defending a Democratic seat in the Senate that, if turned over, could change the governing body’s makeup completely.

“One of the quirks of the Senate is that not everybody’s up for reelection,” Swigger said. “If a party just happens to have more seats up, that puts them at a disadvantage. [The Democratic Party] is much more likely to win in Ohio than they are in Texas or Florida. So, if Brown can’t win reelection, the odds of the Democrats having a majority in the Senate are very low.”

Bernie Moreno (OH-R)

Considering Brown has served two full terms, it’s possible Ohio residents are considering shaking things up by electing someone new. 

Bernie Moreno, a Republican from Bogotá, Colombia, is much newer to the political scene. He ran to replace former Ohio Sen. Rob Portman in 2021, before dropping out of the race less than a year later. He is now running again and is backed by former President Donald Trump.

According to Moreno’s website, the former car dealer believes in securing the U.S. border, beating “communist China,” banning late-term abortion and “restoring the integrity of American elections.”

Ju Yeon Park, an assistant political science professor at Ohio State, said the Republican Party occupying the majority of the Senate could result in more conservative legislation being implemented across the state.

“If the Senate majority is tipped toward the Republican Party, the Senate is more likely to pass conservative bills, especially on abortion, LGBT rights, health care and many other things,” Park said. “[Moreno] also has ownership of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, so more conservative laws regarding cryptocurrency are likely to be passed with less regulation.”

Effects of the race

Swigger said the results of the presidential election will have a rippling effect on what the Senate will be able to accomplish over the next four years.

“It depends on whether we’re looking at a second Trump administration or a new Harris administration,” Swigger said. “That will matter for things like cabinet, bureaucratic and judicial appointments. It’s a question of: Will you have a Democratic president with a Republican majority that might move to block her appointments, or will you have a Republican president with a Democratic majority that’s working to block efforts?”

In a similar vein, Park agreed the winner of the general election will affect the Senate, but said it might also have a coattail effect. This means the winning presidential candidate could have some positive impact on the House and Senate candidates of the same party.

“We see the report that Trump is leading the election over Harris, and that’ll impact lower candidates like senators,” Park said. “Trump endorsed Moreno, and Trump is getting stronger in the presidential election trail, so there is some boost of the coattail effect. If Moreno and Brown were competing in a midterm election, then the story might have been different.”

Campaign advertisements

As far as widespread campaign advertisements go, Swigger said both candidates seem to be following a strategy that aligns with median voter theory. This theory states candidates will adopt policy positions that appeal to voters whose preferences fall toward the middle of the political spectrum.

“Both of them are pursuing pretty standard campaign strategies based on median voter theory,” Swigger said. “Brown is depicting himself as more moderate because Ohio has a Republican lean. Moreno is trying to do the opposite of that, trying to make Brown seem like he’s far away from the median voter and that he’s too extreme, while portraying himself as closer to that.”

Park similarly said Brown’s appeals to moderates is a campaign strategy, but Moreno may not necessarily have to do the same to win, as Ohio is a right-leaning state.

“Brown is a Democrat in a red state, so he focused on local issues rather than national issues,” Park said. “Focusing on local issues is kind of a winning strategy for those who are in a vulnerable position. If we have a Republican candidate in a Republican state, they’re more likely to focus on national issues. They don’t have to strive to appeal to moderates or independents.”

Taking the impact of these commercials into consideration, Swigger said the ads will not likely affect viewers’ pre-existing beliefs.

“In general, the impact of advertising is going to be pretty minimal,” Swigger said. “There are a lot of other factors in the campaign, most notably voters’ pre-existing predispositions, that tend to matter a lot more.”

Park said, if anything, these advertisements could actually make viewers less politically engaged.

“Negative campaign ads may have a stronger impact than positive ads, but then it also has some side effects,” Park said. “It may tire the viewers, or the constituents, so that they may lose political interest in politics or elections at all.”

Ohio’s complicating slant

As far as who will win this important Senate race, Swigger said the election’s results are still up in the air.

“It’s really a question of what’s going to win,” Swigger said. “Will it be [the] partisan lean of the state, which would favor Moreno, or is Brown’s reputation going to peel off enough moderate voters in order for him to win? I would call it basically a coin flip at this point. If Brown were any other Democrat, I would give him considerably lower odds, but he has done this before.”

On the other hand, Park said Brown’s ideologies might be too left-leaning in a right-leaning state for him to be successful, based on data from the Voteview project, which compares Brown’s ideologies to other senators.

“Brown is pretty much leaning liberal, so he may not be a good fit for a red state,” Park said. “Typically, a Democratic incumbent in a red state is more likely to be moderate, but he’s more liberal than 88% of the current senators and 77% of Democratic senators. If he had taken a more moderate position on more hot-button issues, he might have had a better chance.”

Beyond the presidential and Senate elections, Park said she also urges first-time voters to educate themselves on the candidates running for lower-level positions.

“Study some of the downstream ballot candidates,” Park said. “You’re asked to vote for those people at the same time. Students may have decided which presidential candidate to vote for, or the senators and state legislators, but you’ll also want to study some of the lower-ballot candidates to make your decisions more meaningful.”

Swigger said voters should take some time to consider what they truly care about and let those core preferences guide who they vote for. 

“My advice to young voters is to take a moment and think about what you want the world to look like,” Swigger said. “Not necessarily the things that people tell you should matter, but what are the things that actually matter to you? Find somebody who truly comes closest to representing what you would like to see in the world and vote for the world that you want to exist.”